Write2Sell: Is Your Substack a Bestseller Material?
How do you know if (and when) your Substack will become a bestseller? Use my Google Sheet template to easily calculate your realistic and ambitious growth potential on Substack.
Are you working in the right direction?
Or you’re pouring too much effort into the void?
Maybe…if you push just a bit more….is it going to take-off?
Or is it time to change direction? Or even start over?
How do you know?
Now, I know what you’re thinking: “I’ll measure against my goals.”
But are your goals realistic?
If they’re:
too low - you might be missing opportunities
too high - you might be heading to a burnout
When you start a new project, it doesn’t matter how experienced you are. For this particular task, you’re the newbie.
Subsctack is no exception. You can’t set goals based on what you’ve achieved elsewhere. Because Substack has its own specifics.
But what to measure against?
Here’s a rule from the multi-billion business masterminds I work with in my 9-5:
Whatever the market is - growing, stable, or declining - if you’re doing better than your direct competitors, you’re on the right track.
How to interpret this:
if you’re worse and you’re moving slower than your competitors, it’s time to change something.
you might be worse but on your way to becoming better. So you need to push more.
but if you’re already better, you still need to push more. Why? Because if you stop you’ll be outrun in a blink of an eye. Read the rule again - it says “you’re on the right track”, not “you’ve done it”. It’s called “running” business for a reason.
How to apply this on Substack?
First step: get your competition benchmarks
Your goals on Substack are individual. You are your own competition. You don’t compare to others.
All this applies to all of us, writers when it comes to our readers.
But not when it comes to our paid subscribers.
They pay you because they have a need. If you don’t satisfy this need, someone else will. So they’ll stop paying you and start paying them.
Those are the ones you should benchmark. Go look at the bestsellers from your niche. Check out the leaderboards in your explore tab. Make sure you pick big ones - those with the blue or dark orange mark. Those who managed to get more than 1k paid subscribers and stayed there.
Then try to find out what are their key performance indicators (KPIs). I’m looking at only two of them:
Conversion rate of free to paid subscribers. A lot of people share their number of paid subscribers, so you can calculate a rough %. Substack average is between 5% to 10%, but I’ve seen 18% in my niche, so I have a high standard to meet.
Retention rate of existing paid subscribers. This metric is visible once you have a one-year round. What I found so far, it’s average around 50% - 60%. If you can’t find this, you can work with that number.
That’s all!
Now, I know you might be thinking “It’s not good to compare” and you’re right! All we’re doing here is benchmarking. You have to have a measure against your goals. You have to set realistic expectations for your growth.
This is a market, you have supply and demand. It’s not (just) a creation process. And ultimately not just writing.
It’s close to impossible to grow faster than the fastest on your market, especially when you’re new.
So get your benchmarks.
Next step: build your realistic growth scenario.
Time to look at your numbers:
total free subscribers
total paid subscribers
conversion rate of free to paid = paid subscribers / total subscribers
conversion rate growth = your conversion rate now - your conversion rate 1 month ago. If you don’t have it, you can wait until you measure it or use an assumption. Mine is 0.04%
growth rate of new subscribers = how many new subscribers you get last 30 days (find it in your dashboard → stats → network)
retention rate of paid subscribers = % of retained paid subscribers after 12m. If you don’t have that in your stats, simply use an assumption. I don’t have it, so I use 60%.
your gross annual revenue = from your stats
Once you have these, you can calculate the exact numbers you will have in 12, 24 or 36 months from now based on your current performance.
That’s your realistic growth scenario.
Here’s my calculation:
I took my existing numbers, removing the effect of my imported subscribers in order to see my actual growth on Substack.
I place those in a Google Sheet and put some formulas to get that view:
So if I keep doing what I’m, doing I should get the first bestseller badge in about 2-3 months. I also should make it to the 6 figures in about 3 years from now.
Like it or not, this is real.
How did I do this calculation: As I shared many times, I’m building subscription-based services in my 9-5 for more than 18 years already, so I know stuff ;) You can see the formulas in my Google Sheet template (find the link below).
It’s not a basic calculation, as you need to estimate the effect of the retention correctly. Still, it’s a high-level, very rough calculation, which will have deviations based on where you are on your journey on Substack. If you need a personalized calculation, I can help you build it. Just book me for a call.
Final step: build your ambition growth scenario.
Now play with the inputs. If your competitors have better KPIs, try and replace the above numbers with their numbers. For example, I would slightly increase my conversion rate growth so that I can meet the 18% of my competitor earlier, for example in the next 12 months.
If I try and replace my 0.4% with 1.4% I’ll make to the 6 figures in the next 18 months!
That’s my ambitious scenario. Is it realistic? No. Not with my current performance. But if I change something, it can be done. I know this because someone else is doing it.
So if I want to land there, I’ll need to work harder.
Can I do it in that time frame? Don’t know.
But I know for sure where exactly will I land after 12, 24, and 36 months if I keep my current pace.
A side note: the above calculations might not be realistic in the long term for many reasons. For example: 1. Growth rates are not stable. I’d expect my conversion rate increase to become zero at some point. 2. Also if you change prices or do promotions, your annual revenue will be affected. This goes for both scenarios. That’s why such kinds of exercises need to be done on a regular basis.
So this is how I measure my Substack growth potential.
Wanna try it out for yourself?
Take my Google Sheet template and play with it.
See where you can go.
It’s the only way to set yourself realistic goals.
Want the link?
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